Heat pump payback: how many years?
Payback is the out-of-pocket cost divided by the yearly saving. Both depend on you: the calculator starts from your département.
A heat pump pays off when the money it saves on the heating bill repays what it cost, grants deducted, before the end of its life. The sum is simple: out-of-pocket cost divided by the yearly saving. What makes it hard is that each term varies a lot. The saving depends on the energy replaced: oil and direct electric heating are expensive per kWh of heat, gas much less so. It also depends on the climate: the colder it is, the more you heat and the more you save. The out-of-pocket cost depends on the quote and grants, so on your income. For an average 100 m² house in the Rhône, a purple household replacing an oil boiler gets its money back in about 4.1 years; replacing a gas boiler, it takes 7.2 years. The conventional lifetime used for an air-to-water heat pump by the CEE sheet is 17 years. These are estimates at constant energy prices.
Payback time
7.2 years
€8,588 ÷ €1,198 a year
| Estimated price (median quote) | €15,788 |
| MaPrimeRénov’ (purple) | €2,390 |
| of which cut by the cap | − €610 |
| CEE bonus (Coup de pouce) | €4,810 |
| Out of pocket | €8,588 |
| Heating per year today | €2,127 |
| Heating per year with heat pump | €930 |
| Saving per year | €1,198 |
| Payback | 7.2 years |
| Heating need | 13,583 kWh |
| Climate (St-Genis-Laval) | 2,058 DJU, H1 |
Outside Île-de-France ceilings for 3 people: blue ≤ €30,540, yellow ≤ €39,148, purple ≤ €55,196. Estimate only: the Anah alone sets the grant, and the CEE amount is the one the firm puts in writing before you sign.
Checked by Radif Partners · Editorial policy · Method and sources
Payback by energy and climate
| Energy replaced | Bouches-du-Rhône | Rhône | Bas-Rhin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | 7.1 yrs (€1,411/yr) | 4.1 yrs (€2,120/yr) | 3.7 yrs (€2,335/yr) |
| Gas | 12.5 yrs (€797/yr) | 7.2 yrs (€1,198/yr) | 6.5 yrs (€1,319/yr) |
| Direct electric | 10.4 yrs (€1,176/yr) | 6.7 yrs (€1,766/yr) | 6.1 yrs (€1,946/yr) |
Three départements, from mildest to coldest: Bouches-du-Rhône, Rhône and Bas-Rhin. Oil and direct electric heating give the shortest paybacks; gas the longest. The household in the table is purple; a blue or yellow household, with more grants, gets its money back faster.
How many years until my heat pump pays for itself?
Payback time
7.1 years
| Saving over 17 years (CEE sheet lifetime) | €20,400 |
| Net gain over 17 years | €11,900 |
Estimate: energy prices held constant, servicing not counted; 17 years = conventional lifetime in CEE sheet BAR-TH-171.
What the calculation leaves out
Summer comfort, if the heat pump is reversible; the home’s value, which may gain one or two energy-rating classes; the end of oil, as new oil boilers have been banned since 2022. Nor does it capture the risk of a poor installation: ADEME’s study measured efficiencies from 1.8 to 4.5, and a low efficiency can double the payback time.